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Oscar nominations were announced last week, and so I got the usual questions this week about The Tale of Princess Kaguya's chances at taking home Oscar gold. I get these questions every year, so I'm not going to do the whole song and dance about how Oscar voters are predominantly old, white, male actors who don't really know or care that much about animation, and don't "get" anime and its unique visual language in general. However, I can say that this year, Takahata actually has a pretty decent shot.
I say this for a few reasons: first, it's actually a good movie that adults can enjoy, which is more than I can say for nearly all of the other nominees. Second, it plays RIGHT into aging Academy members' love of themes of death, passing time, and the bonds of family. It doesn't challenge the beliefs of less cosmopolitan voters that Japan is some far off, exotic place that's very different from White People Land. It's Takahata's final film, and although he's nowhere near as well known as Hayao Miyazaki, simply being associated with Studio Ghibli will earn him some brownie points, as will his having a long and storied career -- with this being his final curtain call.
Is Princess Kaguya a lock? Hardly. Song of the Sea, also a GKIDS release, has just as good of a chance. Or Oscar voters could just throw the category to their kids and relentless studio campaigning and throw it to Big Hero 6. It's a weak year for animated films, and for movies in general. We'll all just have to wait and see.
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